Are Americans Still Moving Out Of Cities At High Rates?
Think back to March 2020 for a moment. Schools and businesses were closing. Bars, restaurants, and public transit were suddenly the scariest places to be. And the government was issuing mask mandates and curfews. Many of us remember this bizarre yet terrifying period of time all too well.
It was also a time when everyone seemed to be moving out of California and New York to smaller towns and more open states like Texas, Tennessee, and Florida.
A Data-Driven Story
As the world begins to recover from the Covid-19 pandemic, social scientists and human behavior experts have uncovered a few interesting trends in their research on our migration patterns. According to a report from the Economic Innovation Group (EIG), over two-thirds of major U.S. urban counties have seen population declines between 2019 and 2021, making this a first in 50 years. Yahoo News reported that even suburban counties experienced a population deficit. And this trend also rings true for international movement as well – immigration rates plummeted greater than 50% in several of America’s largest cities over the last three years. So where is everyone going? Well, that answer is in the data.
Exurban counties experienced an 80% increase in population, according to census reports – showing that people aren’t seeking the least dense counties, just less dense ones. (If you’re unfamiliar with geographical terms, an exurb is an area that lies outside a densely populated suburb, but that is still close to a city.) More specifically, there has been more movement to vacation towns, the Sun Belt, and the Rocky Mountains. The numbers alone prove some interesting points about human migration and tendencies, but there’s more to uncover about why this trend is happening.
Two Causes of Current Migration Trends
When the world was faced with an unknown, deadly virus, it was reasonable for people to trade in their Manhattan apartments for their family home in the suburbs of Connecticut. However, this aversion to cities has lingered longer than our collective fear of the virus. So, why? While the pandemic was a major factor in forcing people out of urban playgrounds, it was certainly not the only one.
Researchers point to two main reasons for Americans’ recent deterrence to living in cities – both are arguably outcomes of the pandemic. A combination of remote work opportunities and a high cost of living has caused many city-dwellers to flee to less expensive, more spacious, and potentially more desirable locations. According to experts’ predictions, cities with the most remote, white-collar work offerings and the highest costs of living will see the greatest population decrease in coming years. As The Atlantic put it, “The rise of remote work has snipped the tether between work and home.”
A combination of remote work opportunities and a high cost of living has caused many city-dwellers to flee.
In a lot of ways, the trend makes sense. Why live in an expensive, overcrowded city if you can perform your same job elsewhere at a lower cost? However, the head-scratcher, which researchers have never seen before, is why housing prices are continuing to climb in cities where mass amounts of residents are leaving. While partly due to inflation, the low demand for housing is not reflected in the skyrocketing prices.
The abundance of remote employment coupled with inflation and rising housing prices leads experts to believe that the migration out of cities and into suburbs and exurbs will continue in future years. While restaurants, bars, stadiums, and auditoriums now operate at nearly pre-pandemic capacities, offices still remain closed or partially closed, reinforcing the idea that cities are becoming merely a place for people to go to have fun. The EIG claims that remote work is here to stay, and as a result, it’s “changing the economic geography” of our nation.
Challenging Repercussions
The recent mass exodus out of urban counties has created a whole new set of problems for locals and governments. With more employees working from home, the city government is not making as much money on public transportation and taxes on office real estate. And restaurants, bars, and shops are not profiting off workers coming in-person to the office for lunch and post-work happy hours. On the flip side, the large influx of residents in rural, exurban, and suburban counties has also come with challenges, such as keeping up with housing needs, employment demands, and resource allocation.
Further, socioeconomic imbalances are anticipated as a result of recent migration trends. Those who leave the cities are more likely to be wealthy and white. Not only does this demographic have the financial means to move, but also, white-collar jobs are conducive to remote working. However, most blue-collar jobs, like construction work or machine operation, cannot be done remotely, forcing lower-income individuals to stay in cities. The geographical divides that are forming between upper and lower classes are becoming starker as white-collar groups can leave cities and blue-collar groups have to stay.
Closing Thoughts
Recent research has predicted that the migration out of cities will continue as long as remote work and high housing prices remain. What research cannot predict is how long the trend will last and how damaging its effects will be on our cities and towns. Maybe the better question to ask ourselves now is to assess how remote working, a direct result of the pandemic, will continue to impact our careers, lives, and communities in the future.
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