I Watched Almost Every Golden Globe Nominee. Here Are My Predictions For The Winners
Didn’t find time to watch through all the Golden Globe nominees? I did, and here are my thoughts.
I’m a major nerd for movie awards season, and guessing the winners is one of my favorite games to play. While my personal favorite in each category isn’t always the winner, this year, I’m keeping my fingers crossed because many of my favorite films are leading the race.
Blockbusters like Barbie and Oppenheimer brought people back to movie theaters in droves. Several beloved TV shows, such as Succession and Ted Lasso, saw their final seasons this year, making it the last chance for many of them to win their awards. (If you missed the Golden Globe nominations, check out the complete list of nominees here.)
This year, the Globes have changed several aspects of their voting process, including the members of its voting body. Two new awards have been introduced – Best Cinematic and Box Office Achievement and Best Comedy Special – which are hoped to increase viewership in the awards overall. It’ll be a year of changes for the Golden Globes, and that makes the guessing all the more fun. Will Barbenheimer sweep the awards? And which surprises are in store for the nominated actors and actresses this year?
Here’s my guide to the films and shows that will take home awards this weekend – and the dark horse candidates that could steal them away.
Best Director – Motion Picture
There’s lots of room for surprise in this race. The legendary Martin Scorsese competes with sophomore director Bradley Cooper in a lineup that reflects a broad range of experience. Two nominations have gone to female directors: Greta Gerwig’s Barbie and Celine Song’s Past Lives. But frontrunner British director Christopher Nolan is hoping that the third time’s the charm and that this year the award will be his.
Will win: Christopher Nolan for Oppenheimer
Could win: Greta Gerwig for Barbie
Best Motion Picture – Animated
Despite the blockbuster success of The Super Mario Bros. Movie, I think Spider-man’s unique blend of animation styles will resonate with more audiences this year. There could be a potential upset with famed director Miyazaki’s return-from-retirement film The Boy and the Heron. As for Wish? I’m confused why it’s even nominated.
Will win: Spider-Man: Across the Spider-verse
Could win: The Boy and the Heron
Best Motion Picture – Drama
This year’s Best Drama category is particularly competitive. Oppenheimer has the perfect recipe to take home the award: phenomenal acting, flashy directing, and a final scene that haunts you. Bradley Cooper’s Maestro shares all of these elements, though, and Killers of the Flower Moon has the star power of Leo DiCaprio and Martin Scorsese behind it. Add to this that half of the nominated films are also contenders in the Best Non-English Language category, and you’ve got a strong set of films that could go any way.
Will win: Oppenheimer
Could win: Past Lives
Best Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
It’s Barbie’s world, and we’re just living in it. I don’t see a world in which Gerwig’s star-studded extravaganza doesn’t take home the Globe this year. That said, Alexander Payne’s holiday comedy The Holdovers has a brilliant star performance from Paul Giamatti that could turn heads. Another potential upset could come from Jeffrey Wright’s American Fiction, a biting dark comedy. Just don’t ask me why May December is considered a comedy – I’m still puzzled myself.
Will win: Barbie
Could win: American Fiction
Best Motion Picture – Non-English Language
This category is harder for me to guess, since several of the films are not yet available to stream or watch in theaters in the United States, including Io Capitano and The Zone of Interest. Those that have been made available, however, are impressive. Anatomy of a Fall’s brutal dissection of a single person’s life through the eyes of the legal system is almost like a Hitchcock film and puts actress Sandra Hüller on the global map of stardom. The six nominations that Past Lives received, however, is an indicator that Celine Song’s pensive, romantic drama will carry the day.
Will win: Past Lives
Could win: Anatomy of a Fall
Best Original Song – Motion Picture
The odds are with Barbie, which has three songs nominated in the category overall. “I’m Just Ken” has been receiving a big awards push, but I think “What Was I Made For?” is the strongest entry and most likely to win. Billie Eilish’s song is a ballad of yearning, a reluctant embrace of vulnerability that has universal appeal. To all the Super Mario fans – congrats on the “Peaches” nomination. Jack Black probably never expected to be nominated in this category, but life never turns out how we expect.
Will win: “What Was I Made For?” by Billie Eilish and Finneas O’Connell
Could win: “I’m Just Ken” by Mark Ronson and Andrew Wyatt
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television
Ali Wong plays against her stand-up comedy persona in Beef, and the buzz indicates that she’ll be taking home the trophy this year. Then again, while I wasn’t crazy about Lessons in Chemistry, I see how Brie Larson’s performance and her star power could overpower the other nominees this year. For myself, I’m partial to Riley Keough’s rendition of Daisy Jones (a Stevie Nicks-type rock star) in Daisy Jones & Six, but maybe that’s just because I love Fleetwood Mac’s Rumours.
Will win: Ali Wong in Beef
Could win: Brie Larson in Lessons in Chemistry
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Another really strong category. Greta Lee’s grounded performance gave the simplicity of Past Lives a depth and pathos, and Cailee Spaeny played Elvis’s wife, Priscilla, with an innocence that imperceptibly turns into maturity. Then again, Sandra Hüller’s trilingual performance in Anatomy of a Fall is only matched by Carey Mulligan’s haunting depiction of Leonard Bernstein’s wife Felicia – both strong possibilities for an upset. Ultimately, though, I think this award will go to Lily Gladstone for Killers of the Flower Moon. Her performance gave the film a life and soul that would otherwise have been sorely lacking.
Will win: Lily Gladstone in Killer of the Flower Moon
Could Win: Carey Mulligan in Maestro or Sandra Hüller for Anatomy of a Fall
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
There’s been a huge awards push for Emma Stone in Poor Things (an admittedly impressive performance), and Fantasia Barrino’s vocal mastery could win the day for The Color Purple. I’m banking on the power of Barbenheimer, though, and hoping Margot Robbie goes away with a well-deserved win as Barbie.
Will win: Margot Robbie in Barbie
Could win: Emma Stone in Poor Things
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
As much as Rosamund Pike chills to the bone in Saltburn, there’s nothing quite so impressive as Emily Blunt casting off her Mary Poppins persona to play J. Robert Oppenheimer’s troubled wife, Kitty. That’s the flashiest choice, certainly, but Da’vine Joy Randolph’s grieving mother and school cook in The Holdovers is a sleeper hit who could easily take home the victory.
Will win: Emily Blunt in Oppenheimer
Could win: Da’vine Joy Randolph in The Holdovers
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role on Television
Meryl Streep retains her crown as the most nominated actor in Golden Globe history for her performance in Only Murders in the Building. Elizabeth Debicki is nominated for the second time for her uncannily accurate depiction of Princess Diana on The Crown, making her one of the frontrunners for the trophy. I think the most likely winner this year is Ted Lasso favorite Hannah Waddingham. It’s her last chance to win and her second nomination, and who didn’t love her depiction of a woman whose broken heart slowly heals?
Will win: Hannah Waddingham in Ted Lasso
Could win: Elizabeth Debicki in The Crown
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
Will Ayo Edebiri’s type-A, quirky sous-chef help The Bear sweep all the comedy awards this year? Elle Fanning is long overdue for recognition in The Great, and this year is her last chance, so the award could go to her. Natasha Lyonne has hit a career-high in her Columbo-esque mystery series Poker Face, and I’m crossing my fingers for a second season. But the most likely upset is that Quinta Brunson of Abbott Elementary will win the award a second year in a row (I, for one, wouldn’t be mad about it).
Will win: Ayo Edebiri in The Bear
Could win: Quinta Brunson in Abbott Elementary
Best Performance by a Female Actor in a Television Series – Drama
Shiv Roy may not have ended up with the crown, but the woman who played her very well might. Sarah Snook’s performance is impressive, no matter how much we didn’t love her character. Every now and then, though, awards shows really like to surprise us, and this could be the category where it happens. A victory for 20-year-old Bella Ramsey for The Last of Us would be a crowd-pleasing surprise and would make her one of the youngest winners in Globes history.
Will win: Sarah Snook in Succession
Could win: Bella Ramsey in The Last of Us
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Limited Series, Anthology Series, or a Motion Picture Made for Television
I wasn’t a fan of Beef, but there’s no denying that the show’s performances are compelling. Steven Yeun is perfectly despicable in this miniseries, and the show’s award momentum will likely earn him the victory. But it’s Woody Harrelson’s fifth nomination without a win, so it’s possible that he’ll pull a dark horse career win in this category for White House Plumbers.
Will win: Steven Yeun for Beef
Could win: Woody Harrelson for White House Plumbers
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama
Despite a list of strong performances, this is a battle between two geniuses (or at least, the two men who played them). Cillian Murphy brings J. Robert Oppenheimer terrifyingly to life, anchoring a too-long film in a performance we can’t forget. But don’t underestimate Bradley Cooper’s Leonard Bernstein – Cooper took six years of conducting lessons in order to play the character well, and scenes like this show how equally deserving he is.
Will win: Cillian Murphy for Oppenheimer
Could win: Bradley Cooper for Maestro
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy
The second I saw Paul Giamatti’s grumpy teacher with the wandering eye, he absolutely stole my heart. Giamatti is long overdue for some recognition, and this quirky film highlights his emotional mastery. Timothee Chalamet turns in a serviceable Willy Wonka and Matt Damon’s shoe designing Sonny Vaccaro may be charming, but they aren’t likely to steal this award away from Giamatti.
Will win: Paul Giamatti for The Holdovers
Could win: Jeffrey Wright for American Fiction
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role in any Motion Picture
Everybody knows Ryan Gosling is going to win this award. Fans of Poor Things will be divided between Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo, and Robert DeNiro has already won his share of awards. If they want to be edgy, this award might go to Charles Melton in May December, and if they really loved Oppenheimer, it could go to Robert Downey Jr. But if there’s any justice in this world, let’s just give the Globe to Gosling right now.
Will win: Ryan Gosling in Barbie
Could win: Honestly, anyone else will be a surprise!
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role on Television
Matthew Macfadyen’s character won big at the end of Succession, and it’s likely that he’ll take home the trophy. It’s worth noting, however, that the Succession vote is split three ways, which would give James Marsden in Jury Duty a bit of an edge. Marsden’s exaggerated, vain performance as himself is delightful from beginning to end, and if the award goes to him, I certainly won’t be mad about it.
Will win: Matthew Macfadyen in Succession
Could win: James Marsden in Jury Duty
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Musical or Comedy
This year’s award is going to go to a returning favorite, it’s just a question of which one. Even though Jeremy Allen White won this award last year, all signs point to The Bear sweeping the awards this year. White’s earnest, sensitive chef is easily one of the most captivating male characters on screen right now. But this year was also Ted Lasso’s final rodeo, and the beloved soccer coach might win Jason Sudeikis his third Golden Globe.
Will win: Jeremy Allen White in The Bear
Could win: Jason Sudeikis in Ted Lasso
Best Performance by a Male Actor in a Television Series – Drama
Kieran Culkin has been nominated for Succession before, but I think this is his year to win. Portraying Roman’s meltdown at his father’s funeral alone is one of the standout dramatic moments on TV this year. There was no one more popular on TV this year than the internet’s daddy, Pedro Pascal, so I kind of hope Pascal pulls a magic trick and wins the award for his portrayal of protective father figure Joel Miller.
Will win: Kieran Culkin in Succession
Could win: Pedro Pascal in The Last of Us
Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television
This is a new award, and so it’s mostly guesswork which way the award will go. It’s also easily the most political category, and therefore, not everybody’s cup of tea (I, for one, didn’t love watching through them). My best guess is Trevor Noah, whose commentary is the most palatable to a broader spectrum of audiences. If they decide to go with something a bit more inflammatory, then I think it’s possible Chris Rock could take home the inaugural award. Who could resist sending Rock onstage to receive an award after the infamous Oscar slap of 2022? That’s a television soundbite waiting to happen.
Will win: Trevor Noah
Could win: Chris Rock
Best Screenplay – Motion Picture
Gerwig and Baumbach’s inventive, absurd screenplay for Barbie will likely take home this award. Turning a beloved toy into a script that spans references from The Wizard of Oz to 2001: A Space Odyssey is no mean feat. But for those who love foreign languages (and the Globes traditionally do), there’s nothing like Justine Triet’s Anatomy of a Fall. This tri-lingual Hitchcockian thriller could have the recipe to overturn another Barbie win.
Will win: Greta Gerwig & Noah Baumbach for Barbie
Could win: Justine Triet & Arthur Harari for Anatomy of a Fall
Best Television Limited Series, Anthology Series, or Motion Picture Made for Television
My favorite miniseries in this category is All the Light We Cannot See, but after being panned by critics, I doubt that one will win. The most likely winner is the strangest of the six nominations: Beef, whose dark tale of revenge spins out of control before the end of the first episode. There’s also a chance that the excellent production value of Lesson in Chemistry, combined with Brie Larson’s star power, will tip the balance in its favor.
Will win: Beef
Could win: Lessons in Chemistry
Best Television Series – Musical or Comedy
It’s The Bear’s turn this year, after losing the bulk of the awards to Abbott Elementary last year. The Bear is even more heartfelt than it is funny, and walks the line between drama and comedy in a compelling way. There’s only one show that beat it out this year: the wildly hilarious Jury Duty, where one man is placed on a fake jury, all while believing it’s real. Jury Duty is traditionally funny, and unexpectedly moving at the end, so I could see it taking home this year’s award.
Will win: The Bear
Could win: Jury Duty
Best Television Series – Drama
Succession is up for so many Globes this year, it’s hard to imagine anything else winning for Best Drama. It may be depressing as all get out, but the production quality of Succession definitely doesn’t disappoint in its final season. Every now and then, though, the Globes like to surprise everybody’s expectations, as with last year’s win for House of the Dragon. If that’s the case again this year, we can expect to see fan favorite The Last of Us take home the big award.
Will win: Succession
Could win: The Last of Us
Cinematic and Box Office Achievement
Another new category this year. The safe bet is Barbie, but I’m going to go out on a limb and say this one goes to Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour. The film set box office records for concert films, and after several years of bad publicity, the Globes could use some of the magic vibes Taylor has been bringing everywhere with her this year. Either way, I’m disappointed that the real box office sensation of the year – indie film turned blockbuster Sound of Freedom – didn’t even score a nomination.
Will win: Taylor Swift: The Eras Tour
Could win: Barbie
Closing Thoughts
Whatever happens at the awards this weekend, it’s certain to be a race we won’t forget. Which of your favorite Golden Globe nominees do you think will take home awards?
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